Baseline Scenario (left image);
Infrastructure Scenario (centre image);
Pricing Scenario (right image)

The reduction of emissions forms a key objective for the European Commission. The Europe 2020 Strategy confirms the 20-20-20 targets aiming at a reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels, 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable resources and a 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency.

The ESPON 2013 Programme intends to support actions in the framework of the Europe 2020 Strategy by delivering evidence that territorialises the ambitions of the strategy and that detects the potential of the regions to contribute to smart sustainable and inclusive growth.

The maps of this month show European regions that are affected by excessive emissions in different transport policy scenarios. The TIPTAP Project (Territorial Impact Package for Transport and Agricultural Policies) has developed the maps as part of a territorial impact analysis for the baseline, infrastructure and pricing scenario of the European Commission. The flags on the map warn policymakers where important risks of excessive emissions can be expected. The maps show that the decisions in the field of transport policy may influence quite a lot the number of regions. The maps also show geographic concentrations of transport policy impacts. Indeed, geography matters when designing policies!

Concept / method / measurement

The European Commission has developed different transport scenarios analyzing and forecasting the traffic development on TEN-T corridors towards the year 2030 (DG TREN, 2008): a baseline, an infrastructure and a pricing scenario. The base line scenario takes the revised White Paper on Transport as policy framework whereas the infrastructure scenario assumes higher economic growth and new infrastructure provision and the pricing scenario assumes lower economic growth and a set of additional transport pricing incentives. The TIPTAP Project (Territorial Impact Package for Transport and Agricultural Policies) has calculated and mapped the expected territorial impacts of these different scenarios. The project has developed and used the TEQUILA2 Model for this purpose. This model can analyse territorial impacts at NUTS 3 level using multi-criteria-analysis. For this purpose the concept of Territorial Cohesion is defined by three macro-components: territorial efficiency, territorial quality and territorial identity. The impact on these macro-components is assessed using the summative impact on the indicators listed in the table hereunder. These indicators are selected on the basis of expert opinions and data availability.

The TEQUILA 2 Model is designed for summative impact measurement and hence allows for compensation of negative impacts by positive impacts. The TEQUILA 2 Model nevertheless takes into account the existence of excessive impacts, not liable for compensation. The idea is that some negative impacts can never be tolerated and hence not compensated by a positive impact for another indicator. Every time a policy scenario passes a critical value for a single indicator in a certain region a flag will appear on the map indicating the critically affected region. In the case of transport policy this “Flag model” has been applied for the indicators on emissions, safety and congestion.

The maps presented above are created using the “Flag model” for the indicators on emissions. This model sets thresholds for emissions in the year 2030 at a zero-increase compared to the present condition (2005). In order to take into account regions that currently have low emissions a flag will only appear if their predicted emissions also cross the current level of EU average emissions. The maps indicate three critical levels: yellow flag (between 0 and 50%), orange flag (increases between 50% and 100%) and red flag (increases beyond 100%). The regions flagged in the maps presently exceed the EU emission average and are not able to reduce it.

Please refer for more detailed information on the model to the Final Report of the TIPTAP Project.

Observations

• A high number of regions face critical levels of emissions following current EU Transport Policy.

A large number of European regions are ‘flagged’ in the baseline scenario. Most countries will remain inside the limit of +50% (many regions in Spain, France, Northern Italy, England and Czech Republic, plus Attiki and Thessaloniki in Greece), but some regions in Norway (the corridor north of Oslo), Poland (on the north-south corridor from Danzig to Lodz and Krakow) and Lithuania (Vilnius), together with Luxembourg and Inner London are predicted to exceed this limit.

• Regions in Poland and Spain may benefit most from regulatory countermeasures bringing back emissions to acceptable levels.

Comparing the expected impacts of the different scenarios, one observes that the infrastructure scenario already indicates important changes with respect to the baseline scenario, the number of “flagged” regions decreases but problems with excessive emissions would still concern many regions in Poland and Spain, the Po Valley in Italy and many capital regions (Zagreb, Praha, Budapest, Vilnius, Luxembourg). Taking up pro-active policies and regulatory countermeasures, as the pricing scenario describes, the picture is due to change even more. The number of “flagged” regions reduces even more sharply, underlining the effectiveness of road pricing and regulatory policies. In particular regions in Poland and Spain may benefit substantially.

Conclusions

The maps of the month demonstrate regions critically affected by emissions in a base-line transport policy scenario. Policy measures hence may decrease important impacts for many regions in particularly in Spain and Poland and many capital regions.

Territorial Impact Analysis (TIA) can be useful tool for policymakers in the field of territorial development and cohesion. Tools for TIA may support the analysis and estimation of different sector policy scenarios from a territorial point of view as it helps to indentify the geographical spread of policy impacts.

The development of tools for TIA in the ESPON Programme has reached an advanced level although it remains work in progress. TEQUILA is currently only applicable for agricultural and transport policies and also a regional sensitivity module still needs to be elaborated and integrated. The tools for TIA are also to be tested for their practical use in policymaking processes.

The Final Report of the TIPTAP project and its Addendum are available at the ESPON Website.
 

^{Note: DG TREN (2008) TRANSVisions – Scenario, forecast and analysis of traffic on the TEN-T corridors, taking into consideration the external dimension of the European Union}