BT2050 – Territorial Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region

Theme: macro-regional spatial planning, Baltic Sea Region (BSR)


The Baltic Sea Region (BSR) includes Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark as well as North-West Russia and Northern Germany. The BSR is the first European macro-region having a vision for spatial development (adopted in 1994, renewed in 2009).

The region is a highly heterogeneous area in economic, environmental and cultural terms. Spatial integration is hindered by the existing divides. Some of the countries are EU member states, whereas the others are not foreseeing EU accession.

The objective of this activity is to develop territorial scenarios for the BSR in order to increase evidence based on the territorial dimension of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, as well as contribute to EU MS policy making and cooperation between BSR countries on territorial development. The EU Territorial Agenda (EU TA) and Urban Agenda (EU UA), as well as UN New Urban Agenda need to be considered in this respect.

Territorial scenarios are an important tool to show synergies and trade-offs between spatial goals and priorities spelled out in other strategic documents. They can convey the message that territory matters to bodies acting at the macro-regional scale and fertilize as well as influence policy processes in the BSR. Territorial scenarios for the BSR (BT 2050) aimed in the framework of this service contract are aimed at providing a basis for political discussions (for example at the next VASAB ministerial conference), or with other EUSBSR stakeholders and wider Europe.

Policy questions

  • What are the main processes, factors, obstacles, drivers (economic, social, spatial, environmental, technological, political etc.) that will shape spatial development and integration of the BSR by 2030 and 2050?
  • What kind of synergies and conflicts exist between those factors (in particular from the perspective of the key policy processes and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region)?
  • What are the long term trends and what is their main territorial impacts?
  • Which territorial development and spatial integration scenarios can the BSR face by 2050?
  • What are the policy implications of these scenarios?
  • Shall the VASAB vision and long-term perspective be altered?


  • Ministry of Economic Development, Department of Development Strategy , PL (Lead stakeholder)
  • Ministry of the Environment, Department of the Built Environment, FI
  • Ministry of Finance, Spatial Planning Department, EE
  • Ministry of Environment, Construction and Territorial Planning Department, LT
  • Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Department Policy Matters, Division G31 European Spatial Development Policy and Territorial Cohesion, DE
  • Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development, Spatial Planning Department, LV
  • Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, DE
  • State Regional Development Agency, VASAB Secretariat, LV


  • Nordregio, SE (lead contractor)
  • Spieakermann & Wegener, DE
  • Spatial Foresight, LU
  • Institute of Geography, PL


€ 274.500,00


November 2018 - October 2019


  • Inception Report: 14/01/2019
  • Interim Delivery: 22/03/2019
  • Daft Final Delivery: 30/08/2019
  • Final Delivery: 30/10/2019


Sandra Di Biaggio (Senior Project Expert) [email protected], Johannes Kiersch (Financial Expert) [email protected]


ESPON BT 2050 _ Main Report.pdf

  • Acrobat Document | 3.87MB

ESPON BT 2050 _ Synthesis Report.pdf

  • Acrobat Document | 1.28MB

ESPON BT 2050 _ Presentation of the main outcomes.pdf

  • Acrobat Document | 3.23MB

ESPON BT 2050_ Volume 1_ Scientific Annexes.pdf

  • Acrobat Document | 0KB

ESPON BT 2050_ Volume 2_ Scientific Annexes.pdf

  • Acrobat Document | 0KB