DEMIFER - Demographic and Migratory Flows Affecting European Regions and Cities

Thematic scope

Overall predictions indicate labour shortages in the EU after 2010. The Commission Staff Working Document on Europe’s demographic future points out that from around 2017 on the shrinking population in working age will lead to stagnation and, subsequently, reduction of total employment. Against this backdrop, the EU Commission acknowledges the necessity of immigration from outside the EU to meet the requirements of the European labour market. The Fourth Cohesion Report indicates that already today, population growth depends on immigration. In the above mentioned staff working document, the Commission identified a need of further analysis for the effects of migration on Europe’s demographic future.
In response to above mentioned key policy documents the project deals with the effects of demographic and migratory flows on European regions and cities and examines the implications for regional competitiveness and European cohesion.

Please read more about the main research areas and main results envisaged on the next page.

Lead Partner

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Netherlands.
Detailed information on the contracted project team can be found under Transnational Project Groups.

Sounding Board

Nadine Cattan, France
Mats Johansson, Sweden

Budget: € 781 600,00

Project’s lifetime: September 2008 –September 2010

Delivery of Reports

Inception Report: 11 November 2008
Interim Report: 30 April 2009
Draft Final Report: 30 April 2010
Final Report: 30 September 2010

Publishing

Reports will be published once they are approved by the ESPON Monitoring Committee

More information

Please contact the Project Expert at the ESPON Coordination Unit:
Sandra DI BIAGGIO, e-mail: [email protected]

Main research areas

• Study of the size and structure of the labour force and the diversity across European regions.
• Development of a typology of regions based on demographic, socio-economic and environmental characteristics.
• Analysis of policy options which may affect future internal migration, international migration, natural population development and labour force participation.
• Development of alternative scenarios for European regions (NUTS 2 level) based on assumptions on future developments in fertility, mortality, internal migration, international migration, and labour force participation.
• Assessment of the climate change impact on migration flows.
• Development of scenarios showing the impacts of the EU cohesion policy and climate change.
• Case studies providing in depth analyses for specific types of regions.

Main results envisaged

• Regional indicators offering additional information on the qualification of migrants, the financial flows between host country and the country of origin and new complex indicators on regions´ socio-economic situation and changes in competitiveness due to migratory flows.
• Typologies of European regions of the degree/strength of migratory flows, those benefiting/loosing because of it and the possibilities for enhancing competitiveness through receiving migrants.
• European maps on the current demographic and migratory flows and their distinction, the financial flows between host country and the country of origin, development opportunities of regions for competitiveness and cohesion due to migratory flows.
• Development of simple scenarios on the degree and direction of migratory flows.
• A limited number of case studies based on migration data at regional level.
• Policy orientations in relation to the impact that demographic and migratory flows could have on the competitiveness of European regions and cities as well as on the economic, social and territorial cohesion in Europe.
• Data input to the ESPON database