The sustainability of land-use developments is generally discussed within the debate on the effects of urban sprawl versus containment. After engaging with this literature, the ESPON SUPER project team have chosen to distinguish between three main urban forms: compact, polycentric and diffuse. This provides a richer and less normative basis to launch a discussion on urban form.

All three types of urban form can currently be seen in Europe. Compact cities are often national capitals and are often supported by containment policies that attempt to direct urban development inwards, through regeneration, infill or redevelopment. Polycentric urban regions are the most common type in Europe, often promoted by spatial planning policies oriented towards the creation of subcentres, such as garden cities or transit-oriented development. Finally, diffuse urbanization is visible along rural roads and areas of natural beauty such as mountains and coasts, often stimulated by policies facilitating private car use (e.g. road infrastructure provision) and homeownership.

The SUPER scenario storylines are outlined below:

The Compact Scenario

The compact scenario posits that starting in 2020, a policy of urban containment is promoted throughout Europe to avoid the wasteful, haphazard urbanization which had resulted in the destruction of natural resources and undermined the vitality of cities. To achieve this, a selection was made from policies that had proved successful in the past plus some innovations.

The result was that new construction occurred near large cities and 30% of the new living and working space was created within the existing urban fabric. By 2050, all new urbanization was in the form of redevelopment, regeneration or infill.

The Polycentric Scenario

The polycentric scenario posits that starting in 2020, a policy of urban clustering is promoted throughout Europe to avoid both the disadvantages of haphazard urbanization, which had resulted in the destruction of natural resources and undermined the vitality of cities and urban containment which would create big-city problems. A careful selection was made from sustainable urban development policies that had proved successful in the past plus some innovations.

The result was that about 20% of new construction occurred in the existing urban fabric and/or near rail stations. By 2050, public transportation and urban development were increasingly built in conjunction, resulting in more incentives to increase densities.

The Diffuse Scenario

The diffuse scenario posits that starting in 2020, a policy of urban diffusion is promoted throughout Europe to allow and encourage countryside living. It was felt that citizens should have more control over where and how they wanted to live. To achieve this ideal, planning bureaucracies were dismantled and land-use decisions simplified. Self-empowerment was stimulated by generous fiscal arrangements for homebuilding, private transport and energy independence.

The result was that mostly new construction occurred along existing roadways in low densities – much of the development being detached family homes or second homes. By 2050, low-density urban functions had displaced agriculture in high-growth regions.

These scenarios offer policymakers a way to talk about their region’s future. To aid this discussion, the SUPER project fed the parameters of each scenario into a land-allocation model, which presented which land would be urbanized in 2050 according to the scenario logic as well as the magnitude and density of this development. The performance of each scenario was also assessed with respect to sustainability, indicating that a number of trade-offs exist between and within its three dimensions (economic, ecological and social). The SUPER scenarios have already been used to inform Luxembourg’s national planning policy.

Below: The Randstad in 2050 in the compact (left), polycentric (middle) and diffuse (right) scenarios. These three storylines of compact, polycentric and diffuse development are visualised by the SUPER project for all of Europe.

Super scenario Randstad.jpg

More Information

• Authors: David Evers, PBL – Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands
• ESPON SUPER