Scenario A - Promotion of MEGAs (left image);
Scenario B - Promotion of Cities (centre image);
Scenario C - Promotion of Regions (right image)

Scenarios can be a useful tool to support policy-making. They can be used to communicate insights and discuss potential territorial developments, the impact of territorially relevant policies, and the political choices to be made. They can shape the mindsets of policy-makers. Territorial scenarios can enrich policy processes and help them to capture the long-term and become more effective and efficient by reflecting the territorial diversity of future developments.

The project conducted by ESPON ET2050 follows a tradition of forward looking studies and political visions in territorial development established in Europe. Most recent European policy framework documents as well as territorial strategies defined at regional, national and trans‐national scale in Europe, and neighbouring countries, were taken as starting points.

The scenario and vision project used a methodology based on five successive steps:

• First, the present situation has been studied in relation to sectors most relevant to territorial development and considering the territorial diversity of Europe.
• Second, a baseline scenario has been defined by assuming no significant changes in current policies, available technologies and social behaviour.
• Third, three territorial scenarios (A, B and C) have been defined for 2030 and 2050 by combining socio-economic and technologic framework conditions together with different territorial strategies.
• Fourth, taking the scenarios as reference, a Vision for an ideal situation of the European Territory in 2050 has been defined in a participatory process involving the ESPON Monitoring Committee and other relevant stakeholders (e.g. the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Committee of Regions).
• Fifth, policy reforms needed to achieve the Vision have been defined and proposed as final recommendations.

Read the Policy Brief and Working Paper "Territorial Scenarios for Europe towards 2050".