RURALPLAN - Innovative planning in shrinking societies

Rural areas in Europe face multiple challenges with regards to economic, social and environmentally sustainable development. Many European countries and regions are experiencing shrinking, normally meaning both decreasing population and ageing. This trend is particularly evident in rural areas: in 2019, rural regions were losing more population due to natural change, and they were gaining fewer people through migration compared with predominantly urban regions.

Shrinking also implies a weak local economic status for service provision and development activity, challenging labour-market and housing, high costs of social services, including healthcare, impact on tax revenues, decreased birth rate leading to fewer school age children and consequent closure of schools, as well as loss of social capital.

This Targeted Analysis RURALPLAN aims at producing evidence on strategic planning for shrinking rural areas, with a particular focus on Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. The research shall lead to a model for knowledge-based strategic planning and policy-making, which can be applied to European rural territories that are experiencing the challenges related to shrinking.

Through observations of the stakeholders’ area, ESPON RURALPLAN shall (1) enhance the awareness of the planning practices in the studied areas; (2) assess the effectiveness of the planning practices to respond to shrinking; (3) reflect and appropriately respond to the challenges of economic and demographic shrinking; (4) provide advice on how to tailor timely responses, how to develop measures and strategies to turn shrinking into opportunities for an alternative, sustainable and positive development path.

Policy questions

The study shall answer the following questions:

Overlaying on the economic and demographic trends, how local and regional planning authorities in Europe handle rural shrinking?
How to improve the response to shrinking and aging in rural areas, including the approach to smart shrinking in general and how this could be applied in the stakeholders’ areas?
How can local master planning and strategic planners co-create new policy responses in a democratic and fair manner and with all stakeholders involved (citizens, local and regional authorities, private sector, enterprises etc.)? Which model can be suitable to foster knowledge-based and innovative local and regional planning?
What strategies can be used by local and regional policymakers to ensure that shrinking and ageing rural areas become as inclusive, resilient and attractive as possible?

Expected results

Territorial evidence (including maps/visualisations) on economic and demographic shrinking in the stakeholders’ areas.
Identification of planning practices in the stakeholders' areas.
Assessment of effectiveness and gaps of planning practices for demographic change and shrinking in stakeholder areas.
Proposal of strategies that can be used by local and regional policymakers to ensure that shrinking and/or ageing in rural areas become as inclusive, resilient and attractive as possible.
Proposal of co-creation models that can support local master planning and strategic planning to create innovative responses for development in shrinking and/or ageing rural areas.
Validated set of conclusions and policy recommendations for knowledge-based and innovative local strategic planning, improving the responses to shrinking and ageing in rural areas, including the approach to smart shrinking in general and how it could be applied in the cases studies.