The objective of this European research project is to analyze the regional effects arising from scenarios related to Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA). This includes assessing the impact of diversification benchmarks for strategic raw materials outlined in the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act (ECRMA). Additionally, the project evaluates the regional consequences of trade concessions in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), particularly those that contribute to diversification targets for strategic raw materials. Another key aim of the research is to translate exogenous trade shocks into policy recommendations while conducting regional-sectoral case studies to examine the implications of these scenarios based on endogenous characteristics, policies, and industrial conditions.

The project 297 NUTS-2 regions across the EU, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein, using a combination of Input-Output (EUREGIO-2017) and Gravity models. Over its 27-month duration, the project simulates trade and policy shocks to evaluate their impact on supply chains, employment, economic output,and emissions.

The research is structured into three major scenario groups, each examining a different aspect of trade and economic resilience. The first group focuses on ECRMA diversification thresholds, evaluating how the EU can reduce its dependency on specific countries for strategic raw materials. This includes an assessment of supply chain vulnerabilities, analyzing country-to-country dependencies based on concentration, scarcity, and substitutability indices. The study simulates how policy changes aimed at achieving ECRMA targets would affect EU domestic production, import patterns, and economic performance.

The second scenario group investigates the effects of trade agreements and economic partnerships, particularly with key global players such as MERCOSUR, India, Australia, and Chile. These scenarios analyze the role of sectoral concessions within FTAs, where the EU exchanges access to its agricultural markets for greater diversification in strategic raw materials. The project assesses the economic implications of these agreements on regional GDP, employment, and emissions while also considering potential trade diversion effects.

The third group examines unexpected trade shocks, such as disruptions in Taiwan and the Suez Canal, which could significantly impact global supply chains. These scenarios explore how geopolitical tensions or logistical bottlenecks could destabilize trade flows, particularly for critical raw materials and industrial goods. The study assesses the resilience of EU regions in adapting to such shocks and formulates policy recommendations to enhance economic security in response to external crises.

By integrating these three groups of scenarios, STARTER aims to deliver a comprehensive assessment of the economic and geopolitical risks associated with strategic autonomy and trade policy. The findings will support policymakers in developing resilient trade strategies that balance economic openness with security concerns, ensuring that European industries remain competitive while securing access to critical raw materials vital for the digital and green transition.

Service providers

Centre of Economic Scenario Analysis and Research (AT)
Asoc. BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change (ES)
CEPREDE (ES)
Navarra de Suelo y Vivienda, S.A. (ES)
UNIVERSITAT DE VALENCIA (ES)
Universitat Jaume I de Castellón (ES)
Université de Bordeaux (FR)
University of Zaragoza (ES)
 

Contacts

Vassilen Iotzov, Research and Policy Manager

Laura Dimitriu, Financial Reporting Manager